The Sufficiency of Probablility
Alternate title “Look, the Door is Unlocked!”
I often play this game with my kids that drives them crazy. Sitting in the room, with no one but us, while they are not looking I will slap them on the rear and act like I did not do it. They turn and say, “Daddy! I know you did that.” I say, “I did not.” ”Then who did it?” they respond (thinking they have settled the issue with this one question). I say, “A guy ran into the front door and slapped them and then ran out.” They look at me like I am crazy. “Look!” I respond to their skepticism, “The door is not locked. It is obvious that someone could have come in since the door is not locked.” Upon further looks of skepticism, I have them go check the door to see if it is locked or not. Once they check and see it is unlocked, I have won the day. I have poked a hole and their certainty and even caused them to confirm it. No longer possessing the indubitability that I have required for their epistemic verification, they now have lost poise in their former confidence. In other words, I tricked them into thinking that one has to be absolutely certain about something before it can be believed.
Ideas about the value of certainty is currently on the theological stage of debate. With the postmodern push toward perpetual skepticism that gives way to necessary compromise and a redefining of tolerance, along with many in the emerging church responding to the postmodern world by appealing to a fidist approach to the faith (ignore the evidence, just believe), Evangelicals are found scratching their heads, wondering why we are checking the door to see if it is locked.
“You can’t be certain that Christianity is true. Some have said that it borrowed from other ancient religions to get its story.”
“You can’t be certain Christ rose from the grave since his body might have been stolen.”
When a suspicious world says that we cannot be certain about anything because of the alternative possibilities, we find ourselves defending a position drunk with its own form of compromise. When people poke holes in our beliefs with arguments no better than “look, the door is not locked” we find ourselves missing the big picture, attempting to argue about the security of the door.
How did we get here?
The father of the so-called Age of Reason, Rene Descartes, was commissioned by a cardinal in the church to find a way of attaining a level of certainty that went beyond mere probability. With skepticism on the rise, probability was looked at as the ugly step-sister of the indubitability that accompanied absolute certainty. Indubitability equates to infallible knowledge—knowledge that can’t be wrong. Prove without a shadow of a doubt that God exists by mere intuitive resources. That was Descartes commission.
There was celebration at Descartes seeming defeat of the skepticism of his day. His “I think therefore I am” looked as if it provided a bridge to attain the type of certainty to which humans have never been privy. His methodology, which became known as “the Cartesian method,” was adopted in large part by those in the West. And thus began the Age of Reason, where certainty—indubitable certainty—reined supreme.
Christianity was never bound by any sort of indubitability from a human perspective. We have never been required to check the lock on any door. In fact, no one actually can or does live by such a method in the acquisition of truth.
But alas, we often think we are supposed to. We have turned “the evidence that demands a verdict” into “the evidence that produces indubitability.” At least that is what we are pressured into doing.
Once this method does not produce absolute certainty, once we cannot account for the door being unlocked, we find ourselves wondering why we are being forced to check the door in the first place. Yet we do it anyway. When the door is unlocked, those who are epistemically conditioned to find this substantial, either, like my children, enter into a state of suspended belief, doubt, or skepticism or opt for a “leap of faith” that demands no evidence, and then sneer at those who do demand evidence as if it is passé.
What my kids should say is this, “Daddy, I don’t care if the door is unlocked. It does not play a sufficient part in your proposition to warrant a disregard of the greater areas of viability with regard to our belief that you are the one who slapped us.” And if I respond, “But you don’t know with perfect, absolute, and infallible certainty,” they should say, “No daddy, probability is sufficient to warrant, yea, demand a belief such as ours and, as a consequence, to reject your alternative.” Well, if they said it like that, I would be scared, but you know what I am saying.
Probability is sufficient. We neither need to go into intellectual hibernation and accept our beliefs on blind faith. Nor do we need to suspend our belief until all the objections are answered (we don’t need to check the door).
What I posed to my children was merely a possibility to explain the slap, but possibilities do not create probabilities. We are responsible in this life to act upon the revelation given to us, not to seek absolute indubitability.
We are neither postmodern skeptics nor modern rationalists. We find value in both skepticism, when truly warranted, and rationality, when the probability is conditioned by God to be such.
In other words, our belief in Christ’s resurrection should not be sidetracked simply because someone presents an alternative possibility. Yes, we engage these alternatives, but we don’t give them more credit than they deserve. Those who say that the Christian story borrowed from other religions or that Christ’s body was thrown into a shallow grave have simply presented other possibilities that are often no more sufficient to warrant credibility than my “look, the door is unlocked.” Possibility, yes. Probability, no.
Don’t be shaken by unlikely theories.
Don’t hypocritically require indubitability.
Don’t think that all possibilities are equal.
Don’t opt for a “leap of faith” type of faith.
Don’t become unglued because all we have is probability.
Join us in reclaiming the mind for Christ. Start The Theology Program in your church.
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- The Sufficiency of Probability
- In Defense of Sola Scriptura - Part Seven - What About the Canon?
- Why I Believe that our Canon is Fallible . . . and am Comfortable with it
- A Not So Good Argument Against Atheism: The Argument from Finite Knowledge
- In Defense of Sola Scriptura - Part 8b - What about all the divisions?

Bill on 10 Aug 2008 at 1:34 am #
Michael, I love, love, love, love, love this post! Thank you very much for putting it up here.
I humbly add one final thought: Your kids should say, “I felt that slap and I know it was you!” And that should be enough to do it. Any protesting by you after that would make them upset at you more than it should make them doubt their own knowledge. (But I’m still in the metaphor. I’m sure you wouldn’t let your kids get that mad at you!)
Likewise, christians should say, “I’ve felt Him and I know it was Him.”
The rest is just dealing with the persistent doubt-sowers. And I _do_ like what you’re working at, in regards to that challenge.
peter on 10 Aug 2008 at 4:43 pm #
great post! i love the distinctions you make between possibility, probability and surety.
peter
Vance on 11 Aug 2008 at 11:40 am #
Michael, this is a very important concept and I am very glad you have put it so well.
One of the great dangers of certain aspects of Modernistic (capital “M” important here) Christianity is the desire to PROVE God in science, history, etc. Rather than just gather the evidence objectively and realize that nothing there PRECLUDES God, they strive create a scenario that establishes God beyond doubt. Very often, though, in doing so they create a very dangerous “either/or” dichotomy which states that if God exists, then we can prove it, which leads to the obvious corollary that if God can not be proved, He does not exist.
I would go further than you, though, Michael and be perfectly comfortable with the idea that God, and the things we hold to most strongly, need not even be objectively probable, just POSSIBLE. With an objective possibility (ie, not precluded by any opposing proof), then my subjective faith, experience and convictions can fill in that gap to belief. I am comfortable with an overall neutrality of evidence.
C. Barton on 18 Aug 2008 at 3:50 pm #
Something to consider is the difference between objective and subjective reality.
We know objective reality through observation and testimony from others.
We know subjective reality through our inner experiences and intimate observations, often limited only by our imaginations.
We all can make accurate observations, but we do not always come to proper conclusions about them. This is why the scientific process is so important: to give structure and direction to our pursuit of conclusions based on observations.
And the scientific process is a way to avoid the wrong conclusions, but this process is ultimately bound by empirical evidence.
I observed the face slap, but I didn’t observe how it happened, so logic or science alone cannot help me at this point; yet I have a more metaphysical resource - my past experiences, the likelihood of a stranger entering, the basic rules of society, etc., and even discernment in the Spirit, sometimes!
This is why Science as defined by the secular enlightenment disqualifies itself from service to our faith in “proving” God, because they, by definition, forbid the possibility of disproving that He exists, and so cannot prevent us from making the wrong conclusion.